Tuesday, May 26, 2009

What's the Best Strategy and Why?

It absolutely matters which strategy you pick. The best strategy is to switch. Why? Well there are several ways to prove or explain this problem. Let's try the simplest. Let's reverse engineer our victory. What would we need to pick on our first choice to win with the Stay strategy? Well obviously, the answer is you have to pick the door with the car behind it on your first choice. So what are the odds that you pick the car on your first choice? Well that's easy it's 1 out of 3 or 33.33%. So what would you need to pick on your first choice to win with the Switch strategy? Well obviously, you'd have to pick a door with a goat behind it. Then the other goat-door is shown by the host, and the door you switch to will always be a car if the one you picked first was a goat. What are the odds of picking a goat on your first choice? 2 out of 3 or 66.67%. So next time you are on "Let's Make a Deal" you should switch. And if you still don't believe me, I can send you my Excel model that proves it.


Well I like the new car we got. As you can see, I actually fit inside. In fact I can actually move the seat forward. I've never know what that's like. It was my first time buying a car and I didn't like the experience. I didn't know enough about cars to know if I got a good deal. The one thing I did understand was a rip off was the interest rate. So I think we'll refinance or payback early so that Wachovia doesn't get their interest. I also found in my buying experience that though I desired a small environmentally friendly car, such machines are the luxury of the rich and an impossibility for the tall.


3 comments:

hooli said...

congrats.

Erin H. said...

Do you feel the need for speed? Kachow!

laurel said...

Wow!

Harper Turns 3!

We sure love this little girl, and we were excited to wish her a happy birthday.  But, of course, this little sassafrass decided to have so...